ERI FEB RAS

Introduction

3

Chapter one. Double crises: theory and empirical approaches to the analysis

6

            1.1. Currency and banking crises: definitions

6

            1.2. Theoretical models of crises

11

            1.3. Empirical research: basic indicators of crisis

26

            1.4. International capital market : creating preconditions for crisis

38

Chapter two. Currency and banking crises in emerging markets

50

            2.1. Crises in Latin American countries

50

            2.2. Macroeconomic situation in Asian countries prior to crisis

58

            2.3. The role of financial flows in crisis formation in East Asian countries

72

            2.4. The role of contamination effect in crisis development

83

            2.5. Indications of banking crisis in East Asia

96

Chapter three. Russian currency and banking crisis amid global processes

109

            3.1. Main indications of crisis development  

109

            3.2. Theoretical models of the Russian crisis

128

            3.3. Interrelation of currency shocks and banking system performance in Russia

139

Chapter four. Postcrisis development and the role of the state

155

            4.1. Postcrisis development in East Asian countries

155

            4.2. Government regulation of the financial sector in East Asian economies

163

            4.3. Government regulation and crisis in Russia

175

            4.4. Postcrisis recovery of the Russian economy

182

            4.5. Factors of intermediate banking crisis in Russia

192

Conclusion

202

References

207